I have preferred underdogs and Overs recently, but as I studied this card, a few favorites jumped off the page, even with all laying more than a field goal and two playing on the road. The evenly matched nature of so many games this season has been eye-catching, but I believe my four selections will all prevail by margins in excess of the spread.
On to the picks:
Pittsburgh (-5) at Cincinnati
The Bengals won the AFC North last season with strong defense and just enough offense. Their physicality on both sides of the ball was what stood out most. They swept their division rivals and deserved the North title. They were the toughest, most consistent team on the North block.
This season has been a different story. The Bengals' defense isn't nearly as good. Their passing game is more dangerous, with WR Terrell Owens having a remarkable year opposite of Chad Ochocinco, but the offense has suffered through bouts of inconsistency. In the Bengals' latest loss to Miami, the offense sputtered after a strong start.
At 2-5, the Bengals are desperate for a win, and I usually like home underdogs. Moreover, the Steelers are playing their third game in a row on the road. Nevertheless, the favorite appeals to me. When the Steelers have been at their best in recent seasons, they have handled Cincinnati. The Steelers won and covered five in a row vs. the Bengals from the end of the 2006 season through '08 before falling twice to the Bengals a season ago, and I believe they are capable of one of their best games of the season in Week Nine in QB Ben Roethlisberger's fourth start. I just don't think the Bengals can get enough stops to win. Nor do I believe they can sustain the drives necessary to beat the Steelers' sound and stout defense.
Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay (+9) at Atlanta
I no longer doubt the Buccaneers can contend for a playoff spot in the NFC, but I have serious reservations about their ability to play with the conference's better teams, and the Falcons can safely be included in that category. The Bucs' lone losses have been to the best teams they have faced - New Orleans and Pittsburgh - and they weren't really competitive in either defeat.
The Buccaneers' defense, which is surrendering 149.4 yards per game and a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry, will struggle to stop a balanced Atlanta offense that has attempted 229 rushes this season. The Falcons' defense is somewhat vulnerable, too, but I expect the Falcons, so strong at home in recent years, to get the jump on the Bucs because of their offense. Atlanta, which is 13-6 ATS at home since 2008, has too many edges over Tampa Bay in this matchup.
Wilkening's pick: Atlanta
Miami (+5½) at Baltimore
Tough, tough team, the Dolphins are. Anytime a club wins and covers its first four on the road, it catches your attention. Miami's success as a visitor, coupled with Baltimore's shaky play vs. Buffalo before the bye - and perhaps a touch of the Ravens' 1-3 ATS mark as a favorite mixed in for good measure, too - explains why this spread is less than a touchdown.
If the 5½-point spread is designed to attract Ravens interest, well, it has succeeded in this case. I believe the Ravens' best is yet to come. They will be formidable off the bye, particularly with an extra week to work on the secondary issues that plagued them vs. the Bills. Home teams have fared well this season in the first game after the off week, posting a 4-2-1 ATS mark entering Week Nine, and the Ravens, who have a lot of veteran players on defense, fit the profile of a club that could thrive after a week of rest.
Wilkening's pick: Baltimore
New England (-4½) at Cleveland
There are plenty of reasons to like the Browns off the bye. For starters, they have been in every game. Their defense is much better and it can downright confound quarterbacks (see Brees, Drew, in Week Seven). Their offense isn't flashy, but it has been good enough to keep the Browns in games.
However, I don't see the Browns being able to exploit a suspect Patriots secondary. Yes, rookie QB Colt McCoy has played well in two starts, but as good a matchup as this seems for him, it is a favorable draw for the Patriots' defense, for McCoy is making his third NFL start. Nor can I see Cleveland running all over a solid New England run defense.
Is it possible the Browns author another upset special, with Browns defensive coordinator Rob Ryan getting the best of Tom Brady? Sure. But it's more likely the Patriots, as they have all season, rack up another win, and perhaps rather comfortably.
Wilkening's pick: New England
Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 15-16-1
Rhona Mitra Kelly Rowland Danica Patrick Josie Maran Leighton Meester
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